Quebec Economy and Tariffs: Will the Residential Real Estate Market Hold Up?
Recent trade tensions with the United States have tested Quebec’s economy. While the residential real estate market demonstrates remarkable resilience, questions remain about its ability to maintain this vigor against US tariffs.
Source: QPAREB – Quebec’s economy weakened by tariffs
Impact of Tariffs on Quebec’s Economy
Since spring 2025, the imposition of US tariffs has significantly disrupted Quebec’s economy. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) reports concerning economic data:
Quebec GDP Decline
- Real GDP drop of 0.5% in May 2025
- Decrease of 0.2% in April 2025
- Decline largely attributable to falling Quebec exports
Collapse of Aluminum Exports
Quebec’s aluminum sector was particularly affected:
- 13.4% plunge in aluminum exports between Q1 and Q2 2025
- Direct impact on Quebec’s industrial regions
- Disruption of manufacturing supply chains
Quebec Job Market: Rising Unemployment
The Quebec labor market suffers from trade tensions:
Rising unemployment rate:
- Below 5.5% at the start of 2025
- Climbs to 6.0% in August 2025
- Notable increase in export-dependent regions
Most affected regions:
- Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean: heavily dependent on aluminum industry
- Côte-Nord: manufacturing sector affected by tariffs
- Impact on industrial employment and related sectors
Quebec Residential Real Estate Market: Remarkable Resilience
Despite economic turbulence, Quebec’s residential real estate market shows surprising strength:
2025 Real Estate Market Statistics
Growing residential sales:
- 12% increase in sales in H1 2025
- Sustained demand despite economic uncertainty
- Robust transactional activity in major urban centers
Rising property prices:
- Median single-family home price: $493,000
- 10% increase compared to 2024
- Consistent appreciation of Quebec real estate value
Outlook and Anticipated Slowdown
A real estate market slowdown is anticipated due to:
- Fragile economic context and persistent uncertainties
- Rising unemployment rate affecting purchasing power
- Potentially declining buyer demand
- Price stabilization or slight decline in certain regions
Strategic Tips for Navigating the Real Estate Market
For Home Buyers
Monitor economic trends:
- Stay informed about economic changes and their impacts
- Follow QPAREB reports and financial analysts
- Adapt your buying strategy according to market evolution
Buying opportunities:
- Current conditions may offer negotiation opportunities
- Favorable interest rates despite economic uncertainty
- Potentially opportune time for well-prepared buyers
For Property Sellers
Proactive communication:
- Consult professional real estate agents to assess tariff impact
- Obtain accurate and current market evaluation
- Understand local dynamics in your area
Realistic pricing strategy:
- Set a competitive selling price reflecting current conditions
- Anticipate possible price stabilization
- Highlight your property’s unique features
For Real Estate Investors
Portfolio diversification:
- Expand your real estate portfolio to include different property types
- Consider various regional markets in Quebec
- Balance between residential, plexes, and commercial
Risk management:
- Assess regional economic impact on your investments
- Maintain cash reserves to navigate uncertainty
- Favor resilient sectors less affected by tariffs
Future Outlook for Quebec Real Estate Market
While Quebec’s real estate market has proven its resilience to economic shocks, trade uncertainty requires continued vigilance:
Possible scenarios:
If tariffs persist:
- Gradual deterioration of Quebec’s economy
- Impact on job market and purchasing power
- Residential real estate sector slowdown
- Real estate price adjustment in certain regions
If tensions ease:
- Economic recovery and job market stabilization
- Maintained real estate market vigor
- Continued property appreciation
The Importance of Professional Guidance
In this climate of economic uncertainty, the expertise of a qualified real estate agent becomes essential:
- In-depth analysis of local and regional markets
- Strategies adapted to your financial situation
- Expert negotiation in an evolving market
- Economic monitoring and trend anticipation
Conclusion: Vigilance and Adaptation in Real Estate
Quebec’s residential real estate market has so far weathered the economic shocks caused by US tariffs well. However, caution remains advisable given persistent economic challenges.
Keys to success:
- Remain agile and well-informed to navigate this uncertain climate
- Rely on professional real estate agent expertise
- Adapt your buying or selling strategies according to economic evolution
To learn more and stay current on market trends, consult QPAREB reports and analyses and contact a real estate agent for a personalized assessment of your situation.
Need guidance? Our team closely follows the evolution of Quebec’s real estate market and can guide you through these uncertain periods to maximize your real estate opportunities.
